Spatiotemporal Distribution of Case Fatality Rate of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Libya

Abdusalam Sharef Mahmoud; Hafsa A. Alemam; Ahlam Masaud Ellafi; Mouna A. Abdunnabi; Ahmed A. Zaghdani; Salah Edin El Meshri; Adam Elzghied

المؤلفون

Abdusalam Sharef Mahmoud Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Tripoli, Tripoli, Libya مؤلف
Hafsa A. Alemam Department of Environment, Food, and Biological Application, Libyan Center for Biotechnology, Tripoli, Libya مؤلف
Ahlam Masaud Ellafi Department of Histology and Genetics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Tripoli, Tripoli, Libya مؤلف
Mouna A. Abdunnabi Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Tripoli, Tripoli, Libya مؤلف
Ahmed A. Zaghdani Department of Microbiology, Libyan Center for Biotechnology, Tripoli, Libya مؤلف
Salah Edin El Meshri Department of Genetic Engineering, Libyan Center for Biotechnology, Tripoli, Libya مؤلف
Adam Elzghied Department of Genetic Engineering, Libyan Center for Biotechnology, Tripoli, Libya مؤلف

الكلمات المفتاحية:

COVID-19، Case Fatality Rate، Spatiotemporal، Libya

الملخص

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the respiratory disease responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic; one of the worst pandemics reported throughout human history with a high Case fatality rate reported leading to high potential impacts and lockdown of the entire world’s activities. This study assessed and determined the Case fatality rate of COVID-19 and its associated risk factors among the Libyan population. A retrospective cohort study involving 1,000 random nasal swabs from Libya between July 2020 and January 2021 examined the presence of coronavirus antigens in samples from different regions and sexes using a real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain-reaction assay at the Libyan Centre for Biotechnology, Tripoli, Libya. The overall case fatality rate was estimated to be (4.7%; 3.37%-5.99%) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). The highest Case fatality rate (40.78%; 95% CI = 29.74%-51.84%) was reported among the elderly age group. The Case fatality rate among the different age groups was statistically significant (P =.00001). The highest and lowest Case fatality rate were estimated to be (5.04%; 95% CI = 3.57%-6.51%) and (4.48%; 95% = 0.00%-9.43%) in the western and middle regions, respectively; however, there was no statistical difference (P =.4%) between the regions. The study found a high Case fatality rate of COVID-19 among Libyans, with flattened curve patterns but uneven distribution. Age-related factors significantly influenced the case fatality rate, with the elderly reporting higher rates.