Libya on China's Silk Road: A Critical Analysis of the Opportunities and Risks of Libya's Engagement with the Belt and Road Initiative

الملخص

The period following the 2011 Libyan revolution represents a critical juncture in the country's modern history, characterized by the collapse of state institutions and the disintegration of the social fabric. This created a prolonged political and security vacuum that multiple external powers have sought to fill. This paper provides a comprehensive critical analysis of Libya's potential engagement with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which represents one of Beijing's most significant geopolitical and economic tools in the second decade of the 21st century. The paper is grounded in a central thesis that although the BRI presents itself as a financially attractive and politically neutral pathway for post-conflict reconstruction, it in fact carries substantial risks that could lead to deepened dependency, exacerbated governance challenges, and deeper entanglement of Libya in great power competition. The research methodology employs an in-depth case study approach using qualitative analysis tools, including examination of primary policy documents from the Chinese government and its affiliated institutions, previously signed project agreements in similar contexts, and secondary analysis of economic data and specialized political reports. The study finds that potential benefits from large-scale Chinese infrastructure investments are counterbalanced by profound risks including potential debt-trap dynamics, rampant structural corruption, and erosion of national sovereignty. These challenges are all exacerbated within the context of persistent internal division and the absence of a unified central government capable of managing these agreements with transparency. The Libyan case represents a crucial test for the BRI's flexibility and its ability to adapt to fragile state contexts, while also providing clear indicators about the initiative's long-term impacts on the political economies of conflict-affected states. The paper concludes by emphasizing the necessity of adopting a cautious and realistic approach to dealing with China's offer, while stressing the priority of building national institutions and implementing transparent investment management frameworks as prerequisites for any effective and sustainable future cooperation.