Measuring the Human Development Gap in Libya: An Analytical Framework for Strategic Foresight of Development Transformation Priorities toward Achieving Libya Vision 2050

Abstract

This study aims to measure human development gaps in Libya during the period 2006–2023 by analyzing the time trends of the Human Development Index (HDI) indicators published by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). It examines the gaps among the three core dimensions of human development, health, education, and income-and employs the findings to identify development transformation priorities in support of Libya Vision 2050. The study adopts a descriptive-analytical approach, supported by time-series analysis using the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Linear Trend, and Coefficient of Variation (CV) to compare growth patterns and stability across the indicators. The findings reveal that Libya's HDI declined from 0.751 in 2006 to 0.721 in 2023, representing a 4.0% decrease, with noticeable disparities across its components. Mean Years of Schooling increased by 18.2%, whereas Life Expectancy at Birth declined by 3.2%, Expected Years of Schooling decreased by 15.7%, and Gross National Income (GNI) per capita fell by 16.7%, exhibiting the highest level of volatility during the study period. The quantitative analysis also indicates significant differences in growth rates and stability among the indicators, reflecting their varying sensitivity to economic, political, and social shocks. The study concludes that achieving Libya Vision 2050 requires restoring balance among the dimensions of human development by prioritizing education reform, strengthening the healthcare system, and diversifying the national economy. Furthermore, it proposes the Human Development Gap Index (HDGI) as a complementary analytical tool for identifying development priorities and supporting evidence-based strategic planning and public policymaking.